Fenner et al.'s Sources Consider a Patient to be Unvaccinated Whenever They Find No Vaccination Scar. This is the Purest of Confirmation Bias.
'Smallpox and its Eradication' by Fenner et al published by WHO gives several citations to measurements in excess of 94% Vaccine Efficacy
SP eradicated nearly 2 centuries after vax in widespread use by quarantine, not vax
Extensive further evidence smallpox vaccination was ineffective
per WHO, last outbreak of smallpox 1972, index case and 3/4 of the adult cases had been vaccinated.
There were repeated epidemics throughout the 19th century in 100% vaxed populations
it's the only vaccine not even made from the same virus
The Smallpox Vaccine was of Low to Negative Effectiveness at Preventing Smallpox
The claims of vaccine efficacy against smallpox are based on the claim that they looked at smallpox victims in epidemics in third world countries and mostly couldn't find a vaccination scar. They are looking for a tiny old scar in people covered with pustules, including quite possibly pustules right on top of the scar, and probably not looking all that hard. They were hoping not to find it. This is the purest of confirmation bias.
Wouldn't even be all that surprising if a vaccinated individual who later gets smallpox preferentially gets a pustule right on top of the scar.
The cognitive bias inherent in this approach is extensively supported by Alfred Russel Wallace, the co-inventor of Evolution, in his book VACCINATION A DELUSION, Its Penal Enforcement a Crime: PROVED BY THE OFFICIAL EVIDENCE IN THE REPORTS OF THE ROYAL COMMISSION” BY ALFRED RUSSEL WALLACE LL.D. DUBL., D.C.L. OXON., F.R.S., ETC. (1898) http://people.wku.edu/charles.smith/wallace/S536.htm ;;
For example he quotes:"I have always classed those as 'unvaccinated,' when no scar, presumably arising from [[p. 26]] vaccination, could be discovered. Individuals are constantly seen who state that they have been vaccinated, but upon whom no cicatrices can be traced. In a prognostic and a statistic point of view, it is better, and, I think, necessary, to class them as unvaccinated" (Dr. Gayton's Report for the Homerton Hospital for 1871-2-3).
"In the Second Report of the Commission, pp. 219-20, a witness declared that out of six persons who died of small-pox and were reported by the medical officer of the Union to have been unvaccinated, five were found to have been vaccinated, one being a child who had been vaccinated by the very person who made the report, and another a man who had been twice revaccinated in the militia (Q. 6730-42). One other case may be given. In October, 1883, three unvaccinated children were stated in the Registrar-General's weekly return of deaths in London to have died of small-pox, "being one, four, and nine years of age, and all from 3, Medland Street, Stepney." On enquiry at the [[p. 27]] address given (apparently by oversight in this one case) the mother stated that the three children were hers, and that "all had been beautifully vaccinated." This case was investigated by Mr. J. Graham Spencer, of 33, Rigault Road, Fulham Park Gardens, and the facts were published in the local papers and also in The Vaccination Inquirer of December, 1883.
Also they are I think ignoring the hidden factor that people who were poorer and more malnourished were likely way more likely because of that to (a) get smallpox and (b) not have gotten vaccinated.
Here's Larry Brilliant giving a TED talk on how smallpox was eradicated, which involved a massive quarantine campaign that knocked on literally billions of doors to catch cases early and quarantine them. https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_wants_to_stop_pandemics?language=en#t-65535 Transcript: "The key to eradicating smallpox was early detection, early response. I'm going to ask you to repeat that: early detection, early response. Can you say that?"
"A surveillance system was necessary, because what we needed was early detection, early response. So we searched and we searched, and we found every case of smallpox in India. We had a reward. We raised the reward.We continued to increase the reward. We had a scorecard that we wrote on every house. And as we did that, the number of reported cases in the world dropped to zero. And in 1980, we declared the globe free of smallpox.
9:37It was the largest campaign in United Nations history, until the Iraq war. "
"Deleterious effects and ineffectiveness of smallpox vaccination have been among the main smallpox issues discussed in medical papers for a long time. In 1928, the British Medical Journal (21 January: 115-116) published an article by Dr Garrow showing that the fatality rate among the vaccinated cases of smallpox in England and Wales in 1923 and 1926, in those over 15 years of age, was higher than among the unvaccinated. Dr Parry, one of the contributors to the discussion, summarised the questions raised by Dr Garrow:
1. How is it that small-pox is five times as likely to be fatal in the vaccinated as in unvaccinated.
2. How is it that, as the percentage of people vaccinated has steadily fallen from about 85 in 1870 to about 40 in 1925, the number of people attacked with variola has declined pari passu and the case mortality has progressively lessened? The years with least vaccination have been the years of least small-pox and of least mortality.
3. How is it that in some of our best vaccinated towns – for example Bombay and Calcutta – small-pox is rife, while in some of our worst vaccinated towns, such as Leicester, it is almost unknown?
4. How is it that something like 80 percent of the cases admitted into the Metropolitan Asylum Board small-pox hospitals have been vaccinated whilst only 20 percent have not been vaccinated?
5. How is it that in Germany, the best vaccinated country in the world, there are more deaths [from smallpox] in proportion to the population than in England – for example, in 1919, 28 deaths in England, 707 in Germany; in 1920, 30 deaths in England, 354 in Germany. In Germany, in 1919 there were 5,012 cases of small-pox with 6 deaths. What is the explanation?
6. Is it possible to explain the lessened incidence and fatality of small-pox on the same grounds as the lessened incidence and fatality of other infectious fevers – namely, as due to improved hygiene and administrative control?
According to the WHO report, the last outbreak of smallpox on the planet, in Yugoslavia in 1972, the index case was vaccinated a month before, and 3/4 of the adult cases had been vaccinated.