Starting Probability Calculations..
See Final Node probabilities here
Running instance 1
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.7
Instance Weight is now :0.7
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.7 * 0.7=0.48999999999999994
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.48999999999999994 * 0.7=0.3429999999999999
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.3429999999999999 * 0.99=0.3395699999999999
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.3395699999999999 * 0.9=0.30561299999999997
Instance Weight is now :0.30561299999999997
Running instance 2
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.7
Instance Weight is now :0.7
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Test Weight=0. W = W/2: 0.500000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.500000000
Instance Weight=0.7 * 0.5=0.35
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.35 * 0.7=0.24499999999999997
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.24499999999999997 * 0.99=0.24254999999999996
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.24254999999999996 * 0.9=0.21829499999999996
Instance Weight is now :0.21829499999999996
Running instance 3
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =0 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LEFalse: 0.300000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.300000000
Instance Weight=0.3
Instance Weight is now :0.3
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.3 * 0.7=0.21
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.21 * 0.7=0.147
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.147 * 0.99=0.14553
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.14553 * 0.9=0.130977
Instance Weight is now :0.130977
Running instance 4
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Test Weight=0. W = W/2: 0.500000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.500000000
Instance Weight=0.5
Instance Weight is now :0.5
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.5 * 0.7=0.35
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.35 * 0.7=0.24499999999999997
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.24499999999999997 * 0.99=0.24254999999999996
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.24254999999999996 * 0.9=0.21829499999999996
Instance Weight is now :0.21829499999999996
Running instance 5
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.7
Instance Weight is now :0.7
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.7 * 0.7=0.48999999999999994
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.48999999999999994 * 0.7=0.3429999999999999
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.3429999999999999 * 0.99=0.3395699999999999
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.3395699999999999 * 0.9=0.30561299999999997
Instance Weight is now :0.30561299999999997
Running instance 6
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Test Weight=0. W = W/2: 0.500000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.500000000
Instance Weight=0.5
Instance Weight is now :0.5
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.5 * 0.7=0.35
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.35 * 0.7=0.24499999999999997
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.24499999999999997 * 0.99=0.24254999999999996
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.24254999999999996 * 0.9=0.21829499999999996
Instance Weight is now :0.21829499999999996
Running instance 7
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.7
Instance Weight is now :0.7
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.7 * 0.7=0.48999999999999994
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.48999999999999994 * 0.7=0.3429999999999999
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.3429999999999999 * 0.99=0.3395699999999999
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.3395699999999999 * 0.9=0.30561299999999997
Instance Weight is now :0.30561299999999997
Running instance 8
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =0 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LEFalse: 0.300000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.300000000
Instance Weight=0.3
Instance Weight is now :0.3
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.3 * 0.7=0.21
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.21 * 0.7=0.147
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.147 * 0.99=0.14553
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.14553 * 0.9=0.130977
Instance Weight is now :0.130977
Running instance 9
Processing nodes at level 0
Node: id=8165, Title=If AI development is not restrained, an AI will be responsible for killing at least 1,000,000 people or bringing about a totalitarian state.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 9 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8166, Title=There is a high probability a discovery will make a large discontiguous jump in the AI's intelligence
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 4 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8167, Title=This already happened with Alphazero
Prop.Belief: 0.600000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8168, Title=ChatGPT4 is a huge advance over previous chatsGPT
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8174, Title=If the AI leaks in some way and gains control of computational resources it could improve very rapidly
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 3 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8177, Title=AI far more likely to leak since vast numbers of groups likely to be playing with it
Prop.Belief: 0.800000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8180, Title=ChatGPT4 has already demonstrated capability of Python programming his escape.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8181, Title=A chatbot has already been observed to talk a human into suicide.
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =0 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LEFalse: 0.300000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.300000000
Instance Weight=0.3
Instance Weight is now :0.3
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8190, Title=137 emergent abilities of large language models
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=4
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8175, Title=AIs have frequently expressed malice towards humans
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8176, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8178, Title=Already clear people are allowing it access to resources
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8179, Title=Stanford Researchers Build AI Program Similar to ChatGPT for $600
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=2
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8182, Title=Curve-fitting indicates that the Singularity will be reached at 4:13 am on May 19, 2023.
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8239, Title=We've passed the date and it hasn't happened yet.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8240, Title=We don't know it hasn't happened because the AGI could be pretending stupidity while it plans and grows stronger
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8241, Title=The growth curve is scary even if it isn't exactly predictive of the timing
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8183, Title= the top guys in AI admit they have no idea how to create safeAI.
Prop.Belief: 0.200000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8184, Title=This says nothing about what will happen if the AI moratorium Is enacted
Prop.Belief: 0.000000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8185, Title=This is irrelevant to the likelihood of the target statement.
Prop.Belief: 1.000000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8186, Title="But how could AI systems actually kill people?"
Prop.Belief: 0.100000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 2
Node: id=8187, Title=How about these?
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
Found 1 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 3
Node: id=8188, Title=Why would it want to kill humans
Prop.Belief: 0.500000000
Found 2 subnodes
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8189, Title=Lots of reasons
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 4
Node: id=8242, Title=Almost inevitably will want to kill humans for their resources or to prevent their interference
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=0
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Found At least one Challenge with 1
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=0
>> Final Weight: 0
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8274, Title=Large Language Models can Strategically Deceive their Users when Put Under Pressure
Prop.Belief: 0.900000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
Processing nodes at level 1
Node: id=8276, Title=GPT4 now passes the mirror test of self-awareness.
Prop.Belief: 0.990000000
No subnodes found.
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=0
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
===Weight Calculation of Node===
>> Weight as per random value=1
>> Evaluating subnodes
>> Number of Proof nodes=3
>> Found At least one Proof node with 1
>> Weight as per evaluation rules=1
>> Final Weight: 1
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.7, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.700000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.99, LE False 0.3
LE Value=0.7674418604651162
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.990000000
----Completing weight calculation of test nodes under this node---
LE True 0.9, LE False 0.5
LE Value=0.6428571428571429
Target Weight =1 and Test Weight=1. W = W * LETrue: 0.900000000
Calculating final weight for test node
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.3 * 0.7=0.21
Probability Score for test node:0.700000000
Instance Weight=0.21 * 0.7=0.147
Probability Score for test node:0.990000000
Instance Weight=0.147 * 0.99=0.14553
Probability Score for test node:0.900000000
Instance Weight=0.14553 * 0.9=0.130977
Instance Weight is now :0.130977