Probability US blew up Nordstream pipeline

Sweden confirms Nord Stream pipeline sabotage: prosecutor

@trussliz used her iPhone to send a message to @SecBlinken saying “It’s done” a minute after the pipeline blew up and before anybody else knew

I estimate .8 this happened  based on news reports

 I figure likelihood she would do that if they had blown it at .5,

Probability she would txt that then otherwise as . 01

The US deliberately blew up the Nordstrom pipeline, or one of their allies did, at their behest. 

Gazprom just released these photos of a NATO Seafox drone that was found right next to Nord Stream 1 in 2015. The drone failed to detonate. NATO was caught red-handed and claimed the drone was lost during exercises. They tried it before. Go figure.

The US views the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as a “tremendous opportunity” to wean EU states off Russian energy, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Friday.

Why would Russia blow up their own multibillion-dollar gas pipelines the day before a Danish gas pipeline openned, when Europe was about to be forced to make peace with them to restore energy supplies  with winter approaching and their economies collapsing?

 US needed to do it if they wanted to continue the war with Russia because otherwise Europe would make a separate peace

The CIA has previously destroyed a Russian gas pipeline

I estimate its place twice as likely they would do it again if they'd done it before, as if they'd never done it before. 

State Dept vows Nord Stream 2 will be a 'hunk of metal at bottom of the ocean' if Russia invades Ukraine

Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?" Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that."

U.S. Blew Up Russian Gas Pipelines Nord Stream 1 & 2, Says Former Polish Defense Minister

Victoria Nuland: “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

An expeditionary detachment of US Navy ships led by the universal amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge days ago was in the Baltic Sea It was 30 km from the site of the alleged sabotage on the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline and 50 km from the threads of Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline

An expeditionary detachment of US Navy ships led by the universal amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge days ago was in the Baltic Sea. It was 30 km from the site of the alleged sabotage on the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline and 50 km from the threads of Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

On September 2, interesting maneuvers performed by an American helicopter with the call sign FFAB123. Then it was assumed that this board was from the USS Kearsarge air wing, and today more details were looked. According to the website http://ads-b.nl , this call sign was used by 6 boards that day, of which we managed to establish the side numbers of three. All of them are Sikorsky MH-60S.

By superimposing the FFAB123 route on the scheme of yesterday’s accident, we get a rather interesting result — the helicopter either flew along the Nord Stream-2 highway, or even between the points where the accident occurred.

And finally, we need to pay attention to the June article in Sea Power, where the Americans brag about experiments in the field of underwater drones, which they put on exercises BALTOPS 22 — just in the area of the island of Bronholm. And YES,there was US military training there

There is extensive proof implicating them

Including tapes of Nuland,  and Biden  specifically promising to take it out, Condi Rice way back under Obama talking the same thing.

 US helicopters and craft were in maneuvers just before the explosions in a tight pattern around where they occurred. US  sources have boasted of the ability of undersea drones.

I've never heard of a pipeline blowing up by itself before, let alone in such a spectacular fashion involving three separate explosions,  so the odds on it happening in any given month have to be less than 1/1,000

 odds we observe it happen right now given that the US did it,  around 1.0

 odd that we observe it happen right now for  random reasons, <0.01

The pipeline could have blown on its own